Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. This story was reported by Luke Runyon on KUNC. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. The lake that once covered 400 square miles has shrunk 90 percent, leaving behind oxygen-deprived, highly salinized water with a rotten-egg odor that permeates the surrounding area. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River, Arizona. : Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY. He covers the Colorado River basin. For the Upper Basin states, the reservoir storage has ensured theyll be able to meet their legal requirement under the 1922 Colorado River Compact to deliver 75 million acre feet to the Lower Basin every 10 years. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. Definitions explained. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. "This is apparently a decent (water) year, but still, if it turns dry again there are some pretty big reductions on tap and every state could be affected," saidHasencamp. And thats a word that youre hearing a lot more, is megadrought, not just this temporary state of drought. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. The state already is on the edge of shortages for its $4 billion Central Arizona Project. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? Youre hearing a lot more now, especially because the interior secretary, Deb Haaland, is herself a member of a Native American tribe and has put a lot of emphasis on bringing tribes to the table, making tribal consultation a big part of the Biden administrations priorities. Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. At that point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from their other reservoirs to Powell. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . We are really in unprecedented territory right now, and its not even close, Meyer said. Luke, well continue to follow your reporting. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. This cookie is used for load balancing purposes. Forecasts dont paint a pretty picture for snowpack either. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. And data updated Monday from the California Department of Water Resources' tracker show the reservoir climbing to 60%, still below historical levels for February 72% but significantly higher than it had been. The studys computer models didnt factor in rising temperatures expected in this region due to climate change. What is the current status of Lake Powell? The year as I write is now 2018. A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. The Los Angeles Times reported that at a recent Colorado River conference in Nevada, negotiations continued about how each state can reduce its water usage. And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. It took 16 years for it to fill. Officials have already taken some stopgap measures to avert the lake getting down to the pivotal 3,490-foot mark. It's partly that there's less rain and snow, partly that as temperatures rise, plants use more water and more water evaporates out of the soil which would otherwise have ended up in the river. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. So Luke, I dont know is this all just because of climate change? The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. We can not, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under climate change, he said. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. AWSALB is an application load balancer cookie set by Amazon Web Services to map the session to the target. An acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water that will flood an acre of land to a depth of one foot. The historic megadrought that is squeezing some Western states water supplies will also likely start showing up in energy bills, because those dams cant produce as much electricity. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. If the outlet tubes cant meet the reservoirs needs, she said, the flow of water in the Grand Canyon itself could be reduced to a trickle. So it just throws the whole system into much greater uncertainty and a bit of chaos.. Subscribe to our Daily Headlines newsletter. A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. Lake Powell is rapidly drying up as a result of the scorching megadrought in the Western U.S., and may completely disappear in just decades. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. The Colorado River basin has experienced three D4 droughts in the last 20 years, including the current one. For the authoritative record of Science Fridays programming, please visit the original aired/published recording. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. The cookie does not store any personally identifiable data. And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. Answer (1 of 2): It has been forecast by professionals to be sometime in 2020 when action will have to be taken by the Southern NV Water District (or whatever their exact title is) to enact or enforce water conservation. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. The Hoover Dam is therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead approaches deadpool levels. Colorado River tribes pose statewide leasing idea, Risks to Lake Mead, Colorado River intensifying greatly, federal officials say, Arizona basketball | Tommy Lloyd on the wild, fun nature of college hoops | Feb. 28, 2023, Millions at Risk of Slipping Into Poverty as COVID-Era SNAP Benefits Set to End, More than 300 words have been added to the English dictionary. That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. Lake powell has an electrical generation station there. Getty Images. A drying climate and withering heat in recent years have pummeled the region: water cuts to farmers, dry wells, mass fish and bird die-offs, and depleted reservoirs that have decimated hydropower output. This cookie is native to PHP applications. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. What would constitute that? A pair of before and after photos at Lake Powell . This cookie is used for storing country code selected from country selector. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. What about the idea of a water shortage? She compares the current drought conditions to 2018, another record-breaking hot and dry year just a couple years ago. Created by Bluecadet. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. Water levels have been getting lower and lower, and for the first time ever, a shortage seems almost certain. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. We're most likely witnessing the end of this reservoir. The April-July forecast for Colorado River runoff into Lake Powell is 74 percent of average. If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. "It's tough to see," Levy told 12News. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Monsoon rains didnt arrive. This summer, the water. The . And it would increase the likelihood of cutbacks in river water deliveries to Arizona, in particular. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. All rights reserved. Dead pool is 3,370 feet. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. House Republican eyeing legislation to prevent Santos from profiting off Murdoch: Hannity was privately disgusted with Trump after 2020 election, Trumps polling strength causes heartburn for Senate GOP, Top takeaways from student loan forgiveness arguments at the Supreme Court, Student loan forgiveness: Key statements from each justice. And that sponge is very dry right now, and its sucking up all of that water before it can be used as water supply. There is also 29 federally-recognized tribes in the basin, of which 10 of those tribes hold a significant amount of water rights from the river. And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. Water levels at . The dam's evil has had no more prolific publicist than the writer Edward Abbey, whose Monkey Wrench Gang aspired ultimately to bring down the dam. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". And its split into two watersheds. The word unprecedented gets thrown around a lot in discussions about the Colorado River these days, and this is no exception. The Santa Cruz River is now a giant bed of dust and sand. 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